Home Become a Member Contact Us WinPicks Software Scoresline Sports Forum

Forums   Register   Profile   Inbox   Address Book   Subscribe   My Forums   Search   FAQ   Login   Log Out
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex   Logged in as: Guest
Users viewing this topic: none
  Printable Version
All Forums >> [Market Talk] >> Technical Analysis >> RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex Page: <<   < prev  6 7 8 9 [10]
Message << Older Topic   Newer Topic >>
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 2/12/2018 10:59:54 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude


Posts: 300
Joined: 5/16/2014
Status: offline
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 13, 2018

Wave summary:
The rally from 1.6854 is not yet convincing, but if support at 1.6897 is able to protect the downside for a new rally above minor resistance at 1.7023 the correction in wave ii should be complete and wave iii developing for a rally to and above resistance at 1.7479 on the way higher to 1.7777.

A break below 1.6897 will risk a new decline to 1.6853 and maybe even closer to 1.6830 before wave ii is complete.
R3: 1.7045
R2: 1.7023
R1: 1.6966
Pivot: 1.6897
S1: 1.6878
S2: 1.6853
S3: 1.6830

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6977 with our stop placed at 1.6845.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 181
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 2/14/2018 8:42:47 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude


Posts: 300
Joined: 5/16/2014
Status: offline
Good data on inflation led to the growth of the US dollar

The euro slumped in relation to the US dollar in the morning, before the release of important data on inflation in the US. The main reason for the pressure on the euro could be data on the slowdown in economic activity in Germany at the end of last year.

According to the report, Germany's GDP in the fourth quarter of 2017, compared with the previous quarter, increased by 0.6%. In annual terms, growth was 2.3%. These data fully coincided with the forecast of economists.

As noted in the statistics agency, the good growth rates are maintained due to the high external demand for premium goods. The acceleration of exports was also indicated.

Inflation in Germany slowed at the beginning of this year, which is an alarming call for the ECB. According to the data, the consumer price index fell by 0.7% in January of this year compared with December 2017, which fully coincided with the forecasts of economists. Core inflation fell by 1.0%.

Italy's GDP showed the fastest growth in the last seven years. According to the National Bureau of Statistics Istat, Italy's economy in 2017 grew by 1.6% compared with 2016.

As for the growth of the eurozone's GDP, the growth in the 4th quarter compared to the 3rd quarter was 0.6%, and compared to the same period in 2016, GDP increased by 2.7%. These data also fully coincided with the forecasts of economists.

The good economic indicators of the Eurozone at the end of 2017 have repeatedly led the European Central Bank to pay attention to the current situation in monetary policy, as well as the volume of the bond repurchase program, the reduction of which could lead to further euro growth in the medium term.

Data on the growth of inflation in the second half of Wednesday increased demand for the US dollar, which managed to regain even more positions lost at the beginning of the week against the euro and the British pound.

According to the report, the consumer price index in the US in January 2018 increased by 0.5%, exceeding the forecast of economists, who expected an increase in inflation of only 0.3%. Compared to the same period in 2017, inflation increased by 2.1%.

The base index, which does not take into account volatile prices, increased by 0.3% in January, with a growth forecast of 0.2%. Compared to the same period in 2017, the index grew by 1.8%.

Given such good performance, the short-term growth of the US dollar against the euro and the pound may continue, as it is possible that a good inflation rate in the US could seriously affect the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, which could again be hiked this spring.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 182
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 2/18/2018 9:50:37 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude


Posts: 300
Joined: 5/16/2014
Status: offline
The dollar takes the initiative

Positive macroeconomic data allowed the dollar to finally recoup from a prolonged fall caused by panic sell-offs in stock markets.

Against the euro, the dollar fell below the psychological level of 1.24, the reason was the increased demand for the dollar after unexpectedly positive data on the housing market for January. The number of new buildings grew by 9.7%, experts expected growth of only 3.4%, and also by 7.4% the number of building permits increased with a forecast of 3.5%. Growth in activity in the construction sector may lead to a slowdown in housing prices.

The University of Michigan's report on consumer confidence turned positive, the sentiment index rose to 99.9 against 95.7 in December, apparently, the mood of the taxation was positively influenced by the start of the tax reform, with a deterioration in sentiment rather than growth. The peak that was formed - the second since 2004 - indicates that in the American society, the perception of reforms is assessed positively.

In addition, the rise in prices for imports and exports were above forecasts, which will affect inflation, and we will get quite a confident growth in the dollar, even despite the recent turmoil in the stock market.

The forecast for GDP growth in the first quarter from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta improved slightly and amounts to 3.2% on Monday evening. The negative from the weak data on retail sales and consumer inflation is somewhat stable, the threat to the selling of the dollar has decreased significantly.

Markets can not yet understand how the tax reform will affect the US economy. In pre-election promises, Trump focused on the fact that he would begin to reduce the budget deficit and the huge debt, but in reality so far everything is developing in the opposite scenario. The budget deficit will significantly increase this year, as well as the level of public debt. As for the corporate sector, there is still no desire to reduce borrowing, on the contrary, the benefits of tax cuts can cause not a decrease in debt, but its growth - companies intend to issue more bonds this year than in 2017. This trend , if it is implemented, can completely reverse the intent of the tax reform on its head.

The key event of the upcoming week is the publication of the minutes of the FOMC meeting on January 31. The test of the statement slightly changed in regards to the meeting in December, but it was impossible to understand what estimate the members of the Cabinet gave to the launched tax reform. A detailed alignment can again lead to an increase in volatility, since the forecast for the number of rate hikes this year will directly depend on it. While the markets are confident of two increases in March and June, further opinions vary, and the protocol can greatly affect market sentiment. Business activity indexes from Markit will also be released on Wednesday.

At the moment, the dynamics of the indices is opposite, the production PMI rose in January to 55.5p compared to 55.1p in December, which indicates the strongest growth in the manufacturing industry since March 2015. Regional data show continued growth, the ISM index rose more than expected , so on Wednesday, most likely, there will be a confirmation of growth in business activity.

At the same time, in the service sector, activity slowed for several months in a row, which quite distorted the overall picture. It is expected that against the backdrop of growing consumer confidence and confident labor market data, the PMI index in the services sector will also show growth, which will provide additional support to the dollar.

Thus, by the end of the week, the dollar managed to survive the blow and has good chances to stay on the achieved levels.

Monday is a holiday in the US, so strong movements due to lack of objective data are not expected. The likelihood against commodity currencies appears to be at its highest, however, the yen will not enjoy less demand, the growth of usdjpy is unlikely. It is also possible to resume demand for gold and the Swiss franc.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 183
Page:   <<   < prev  6 7 8 9 [10]
All Forums >> [Market Talk] >> Technical Analysis >> RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex Page: <<   < prev  6 7 8 9 [10]
Jump to:

New Messages No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages Locked w/o New Messages
 Post New Thread
 Reply to Message
 Post New Poll
 Submit Vote
 Delete My Own Post
 Delete My Own Thread
 Rate Posts

Forum Software © ASPPlayground.NET Advanced Edition 2.4.5 Unicode