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RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/6/2019 11:03:52 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on August 7, 2019

USD / JPY pair
The situation on the yen remains difficult. Thanks to yesterday's growth of the American stock market at S&P 500 by 1.30%, the pair was able to close the day with an increase of 52 points. On the daily chart, the price line was the balance line. Today, the Asian stock market is still falling in the Asian session, except for the Australian S&P/ASX200 index, adding 0.55%. Meanwhile, the Japanese Nikkei225 is now the leader of the fall with 0.83%. The yen "hid in a corner" almost literally as it is held in a triangle formed by the lines of falling and rising price channels. The Support is the line of 105.75 and the resistance is at 106.54. Fixation under the green bottom line will allow the price to decline to 105.00, which consolidates above the upper one that opens up the prospect of growth to 108.62.

On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator should go into the zone of positive numbers for the first sign of growth to appear. Visually, this will happen just with the release of prices above 106.54. The first growth target will be the MACD line at 107.42.

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RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/7/2019 9:53:10 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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EUR/USD: Trump's anger, Treasuries fall and RMB rise

After a temporary respite, the dollar again came under pressure from problems of a very diverse nature. Trump criticized the Federal Reserve again (and in a rather harsh form), the yuan renewed its 11-year high again, and the yield on 10-year Treasuries collapsed to three-year lows. The dollar index is actively losing its position amid such a negative fundamental picture, reflecting the greenback being sold throughout the market.

The euro-dollar pair also follows general trends. After dropping to the 11th figure during the European session, Bulls then more than made up for it, reaching 1.1240. By and large, today EUR/USD traders repeated the price path of Tuesday, however, with one exception: the US currency looks much more vulnerable today, and not only in conjunction with the euro. For example, paired with the yen, the greenback sank to the 105th figure (five-month low), and paired with the franc slumped to the 96th figure (11-month low). In other words, the market is actively getting rid of the dollar and investing in defensive assets - by the way, gold has risen to a 6-year high today, that is, to around 1509.

This dynamics is due to several reasons. First of all, the dollar was a victim of the general nervousness of traders. The unexpected move of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (which suddenly dropped today by 50 bp immediately) unsettled many investors - it became completely clear that the central banks of the leading countries of the world will soften their monetary policy parameters in the foreseeable future, and the Fed is here will not be an exception.

Indeed, today, in addition to the RBNZ, the Central Bank of India has reduced the interest rate (by 35 basis points at once, to the lowest level since 2010) and the central bank of Thailand - the regulator has reduced the rate from 1.75% to 1.50%. The Thai central bank also surprised investors, as most analysts expected the rate to remain unchanged. Such a peculiar "domino effect" provided strong support for defensive instruments and equally strong downward pressure on the greenback. Wall Street reacted appropriately to the situation: the main indexes plummeted significantly when trading began. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 2%, the S&P 500 by almost 2%, while the Nasdaq Composite by 1.6%.

The fundamental background for the dollar is too sharply painted in gloomy tones. Let me remind you that after the July meeting of the Fed (which took place just a week ago), the US currency went up sharply in almost all dollar pairs. Investors were confident that the Fed would limit itself to a "warning shot" in the form of one 25-point rate cut. By and large, Fed members, like Jerome Powell, indirectly confirmed this market assumption, although they did not exclude an alternative scenario. But a week ago, the likelihood of implementing this "alternative" scenario was minimal. However, further events unfolded with such swiftness that in just a few days dollar bulls lost ground.

Trump's resonant statement about 300 billion duties, China's response (refusal to purchase American agricultural products), devaluation of the renminbi, a 50-point reduction in the RBNZ rate and easing of the monetary policy of the central bank of India and Thailand are all links in one chain. With a high degree of probability, the Fed will also not be left out in the end, resorting to another round of rate cuts this year. The only question is - 25 or 50 basis points. It is noteworthy that yesterday James Bullard, one of the most prominent representatives of the "dovish" wing of the Fed, said that the regulator should not reflexively react to the actions of the US and China, which operate on the basis of the "tooth by tooth" principle. He noted that interest rates are now at an optimal level, and before deciding on further steps, the Federal Reserve needs to analyze the reaction of the US economy to a trade war.

But Donald Trump is still vomiting and mosquing, accusing the Federal Reserve of almost tampering. He said that Fed members still cannot admit their mistake, which was that the regulator began to "tighten monetary policy too soon and too quickly." In his opinion, the Federal Reserve should now actively reduce the interest rate, thereby increasing US competitiveness. "The problem is not even in China, but in our central bank," the president concluded.

On the one hand, Jerome Powell has repeatedly stated that such attacks from Trump does not affect the Fed's position. On the other hand, the market again started talking about the fact that the regulator could reduce the interest rate by 50 points in the fall (or resort to a double reduction of 25 bp by the end of the year) - even without taking into account the political pressure of the White House. This fact has a significant impact on the greenback, helping EUR/USD bulls to storm the nearest resistance level of 1.1260 (the lower border of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart).

But it is worth noting here that EUR/USD bulls still can't confirm their dominance - for this they need to gain a foothold over the above resistance level, and for fidelity - to overcome the upper border of the cloud, which corresponds to the level of 1.1302. Until then, the price will fluctuate in the range of 1,1140-1,1260 in anticipation of a powerful information driver that will help traders take the pair outside one of the corridor boundaries.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 522
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/9/2019 1:19:06 AM   
IFX Yvonne

 

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 09/08/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD market is continuing the horizontal consolidation in a narrow range as it still does not have enough upward momentum to break through the lower trendline boundary located around the level of 1.2270. The momentum indicator remains neutral, which indicates a further possible spike towards the level of 1.1983. The trend is still down and there are no signs of a trend reversal yet, but the choppiness of the price action is still high, so there are no clear trading setups present on this market for now.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2595
WR2 - 1.2485
WR1 - 1.2298
Weekly Pivot - 1.2184
WS1 - 1.1983
WS2 - 1.1676
WS3 - 1.0876

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to follow the larger timeframe trend. The larger time frame trend is still down and there are no signs of trend reversal. The key long-term technical support at the level of 1.2420 has been violated and the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2100 and 1.1983. All the corrections are just the local correction inside of a downtrend.



*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Post #: 523
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/12/2019 11:27:31 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Forecast for GBP/USD on August 13, 2019

GBP/USD
On Monday, the pound sterling slightly adjusted the top from strong technical support of the range of 1.1986-1.2032, corresponding to the lows of January 2017 and October 2016, and coinciding with the Fibonacci levels of the daily chart of 271.0% and 261.8%.

Convergence on the Marlin oscillator formed on the daily chart. Whether this pattern turns out to be a sign of a deeper correction, to the Fibonacci levels of 238.2%, at the price of 1.2154 or 223.6% at the price of 1.2230, or will it turn out to be a false signal and the price will consolidate at 1.1986, it will become clear either today after the release of data on employment in the UK or tomorrow, with the release of inflation indicators. According to today's data, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8%, applications for unemployment benefits in July may be slightly less than in the previous month - 32.0 thousand against 38.0 thousand. Inflation forecasts on Wednesday are negative, in particular CPI may drop from 2.0% y/y to 1.9% y/y.

On the four-hour chart, the price is steadily falling below the blue MACD indicator line, while the Marlin oscillator is in the decline zone. The current situation is neutral, we are waiting for the development of events.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex


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RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/13/2019 10:45:46 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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GBP/USD. UK wages up, but the pound is indifferent to statistics

The British currency received little support from macroeconomic reports today. Although the published data on the UK labor market was controversial, traders focused on the positive aspects of the release. This made it possible for the GBP/USD pair to move away from today's lows and develop a minimal, but still a correction.

But in general, the pair's situation has not changed: the pound is still under strong Brexit pressure, so any more or less large-scale price growth is perceived by the market as an occasion to open short positions. However, the lower limit of the range is very close - at the bottom of the 20th figure. To break through this level, traders need a more compelling reason, while the British are dominated by the usual market concern about the prospects of a "divorce proceedings". In other words, the pound/dollar is trapped in the grip of fundamental and technical factors. On the one hand, there is a strong support level of 1.2000, on the other hand, the lack of powerful information lines, against the background of general nervousness over the upcoming political battles in the House of Commons.

That is why today's release did not cause much excitement among market participants. Although this is partly due to the fact that the published figures are controversial. Thus, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9%, although according to general expectations, it should have remained at the same level - 3.8%. The number of applications for unemployment benefits has also increased significantly - by 28 thousand. Although it is worth noting here that according to the consensus forecast, this indicator should have shown a more deplorable result: +42000. Therefore, the real numbers in the end turned out to be much better than expected. But the wage component showed the strongest result. This indicator (excluding bonuses) jumped to an 11-year high (3.9%), confirming the positive trend in recent months. Total pay, which includes bonuses, also pleased investors with a growth of up to 3.7% (a three-year high).

It is worth recalling that the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has repeatedly said that a possible increase in the rate will largely depend on the growth of wages, as this indicator spurs inflation. Of course, in the current environment, it all depends on Brexit's prospects, but if Parliament nevertheless blocks the "hard" scenario, then the likelihood of tightening monetary policy in the first half of next year cannot be ruled out. It is also worth noting that the pound paired with the dollar is now at its lowest values: the relative cheapness of the British currency will also play a role in accelerating inflation in the second half of the year.

Thus, the correction of the GBP/USD pair allows traders to open short positions with a larger price gap in the future. The target of the downward movement is still the 1,2005 mark - this is a psychologically important level of support, to overcome which a powerful information occasion is necessary. Nevertheless, the pound-dollar pair continues to be in a downward trend, so it is advisable to use the pair's growth for a more profitable sale of the British currency.

There is still no consensus among analysts whether the deputies of the House of Commons will be able to block the implementation of the hard Brexit scenario or not. Boris Johnson admitted yesterday that his main opponent, the leader of the Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, plans to drag out the country's exit from the European Union "for many years". Corbyn, in turn, does not hide the fact that he plans to initiate the issue of declaring a vote of no confidence in the prime minister. If the Conservatives cannot then form a government within 14 days, then the country will face early Parliamentary elections. True, Johnson may set the date for elections in November, that is, when the UK is already leaving the EU without any agreement.

Anticipating such a scenario, Johnson's opponents can prevent its implementation. There is another option, which, however, was used only a few times in modern history - for example, during the Second World War and the global economic crisis of the early 30s of the last century (that is, during the Great Depression). It is about creating a "government of national unity", which is formed by members of the temporary inter-party majority. According to analysts, at the moment this is a very unlikely option, but nevertheless, it cannot be ruled out. A politically mottled Parliament can at a critical moment rally and prevent the hard Brexit.

Thus, the outcome of the "Big Political Battle", as journalists have already dubbed the forthcoming confrontation between the prime minister and MPs, is far from a foregone conclusion. Therefore, the pair actually froze within the framework of the 20th figure, while maintaining a bearish potential. All this makes it possible for you to open short positions on the GBP/USD pair with corrective upward pullbacks while aiming for a downward goal in the price area of 1.2010

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/14/2019 10:56:20 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Washington and Beijing loosened the nuts. A thin world or calm before a storm?

The unexpected decision of the US administration to delay the introduction of 10% tariffs on a number of goods imported into the United States from China revived the markets. Investors began to buy cheaper assets.

Why did the White House retreat? Maybe the United States really wants to make concessions, or did they just see that Beijing was not afraid of their tariffs? It is enough to recall how China devalued the yuan quite simply in order to smooth out the negative effect of the duties introduced by the US.

It is noteworthy that today the People's Bank of China raised the yuan to the dollar for the first time in two weeks - up to 7.0312. Previously, the regulator continuously depreciated the national currency, as a result of which it updated lows since the spring of 2008.

Judging by the comments of Donald Trump, the US president's decision to postpone the introduction of new Chinese tariffs for a number of positions until December 15 is not a sign of progress in the Washington-Beijing trade negotiations, but rather a result of pressure from US companies.

"We are doing this taking into account the upcoming Christmas holidays so that some of the duties do not hit consumers in the United States," he said.

Thus, the head of the White House for the first time admitted that tariffs could harm the US economy.

Goldman Sachs believes that Washington's departure from its original plan to levy duties on all Chinese exports to the United States is a reaction to the fall of US stock indices.

According to Moody's, the recent events should not be seen as a de-escalation of the conflict between the United States and China: this is just a temporary delay.

"D. Trump is afraid to look weak and unable to achieve the goal. In addition, he fears that his chosen strategy of a trade war with China will be ineffective both in the eyes of his own voters and China itself," reports the Chinese publication Global Times.

"The US is making concessions as soon as negotiations between the two countries are on the verge of a complete break. Washington's latest softening said it recognizes that pressure tactics on Beijing aren't working," said Bai Ming, an analyst at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation.

However, regardless of the White House's motives, the latest news from the trade front caused a stormy positive reaction from the markets, allowing US indices to win back the decline of the beginning of the week, and the greenback appreciably strengthened against major currencies, especially against the yen. The USD/JPY pair has broken the 106 mark.

Data that was published yesterday also provided some support for the US currency, since the release showed the best (since 2006) two-month increase in core inflation in the United States. In July, the indicator increased by 0.3% in monthly terms and by 2.2% in annual terms. The fact that inflation accelerates after a sluggish start reduces the risks of aggressive easing of the monetary reserve monetary policy. The chances of a September cut in the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at once fell from 25% to less than 10%. The Fed leadership is becoming less likely to further lower interest rates.

Today, the yen against the dollar has returned to growth amid continued geopolitical risks.

Despite recent U.S. moves, markets are not waiting for a quick resolution to Washington and Beijing trade disputes, which put pressure on the entire global economy.

Analysts also note the presence of geopolitical tensions in different regions of the world, which supports the demand for the yen.

"Recent news provides more opportunities to strengthen the dollar and weaken the yen, but this does not mean that trade differences are resolved. In addition, there are many geopolitical risks, such as the situation in Hong Kong, the upcoming Brexit and the situation around Iran. Therefore, I do not expect significant demand for risky assets," said Tohru Sasaki, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase Bank.

It is assumed that if China feels D. Trump's weakness and begins to dictate its conditions, then we will again see the corresponding market reaction, the opposite of the one observed yesterday.

As for the main currency pair, it still remains within the wide lateral range.

The gloomy results of recent studies of business sentiment in Germany today have been confirmed by actual economic indicators. According to Destatis, German GDP declined 0.1% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter.

According to analysts, two negative quarterly indicators in a row will indicate a technical recession in the country, which is the locomotive of the entire European economy. However, the eurozone as a whole remains in relative safety: its GDP continued to grow in the second quarter, although only by 0.2% in quarterly terms.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 526
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/16/2019 12:25:23 AM   
IFX Yvonne

 

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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 16, 2019

EUR/USD The main news yesterday was the release of excellent US retail performance in July. Base sales increased 1.0%, total sales increased 0.7%. An hour later, data on industrial production came out worse than forecast, but the euro could no longer resist a decline. Industrial production in July fell by 0.2%. Euro lost 31 points.

Good US construction data is expected today. The number of bookmarks of new homes in July may grow from 1.25 million to 1.26 million, the indicator of permits for the construction of a new house can show an increase from 1.23 million to 1.27 million. And in the eurozone the trade balance for June, published today may decrease from 20.2 billion euros to 18.7 billion.



We expect the price to consolidate below the Fibonacci level on the daily chart 123.6% (1.1074). Formally, the underlying target of the Fibonacci level of 138.2% (1.0980) opens, but at the beginning of next week, investors can slow down in anticipation of the publication of the FOMC Fed minutes, which will be on Wednesday.



There is a steady decline on the four-chart. Therefore, after consolidating the price below 1.1074, we expect the euro to fall to 1.0980. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Post #: 527
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/18/2019 10:42:10 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Control zones Bitcoin 08/19/19

Bitcoin is trading above the balance level for the second day. This became possible after stopping the fall during the test of monthly control zone in August. The middle course zone was also tested at the end of last week. The likelihood of an increase in the value of bitcoin increases. You should not expect a sharp increase in the price, however, while the balance marks are below the course, you should keep the purchases open at the end of last week. Sales can be closed completely, since the probability of falling below the level of $10,000 in August is 30%.

Favorable price for the purchase of the instrument will be at any level below $10,000. The first growth goal can be considered at the $10,749 mark. When bitcoin reaches this level, a partial consolidation of purchases and the transfer of the rest to breakeven will be required.

An alternative model has a probability of implementation below 30%, which does not make it possible to enter sales. The instrument is trading near the monthly control zone. This makes a further decline unlikely. If the decline occurs below $10,000, then the probability of a return to this mark in August will be at 70%, and in case of exit and closing of the month's trading below this level, the probability will increase to 90%.

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/19/2019 10:53:44 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Control zones GBPUSD 08/20/19

Today's plan is to bring purchases previously opened to WCZ 1/2 1.2199-1.2182. When testing the zone, consolidating part of the position will be required, and the rest should be brought to breakeven. The main pattern for entering the position will be the "false breakdown" of yesterday's high after the WCZ 1/2 test. If this happens, you must completely eliminate the purchase and enter a short position. The potential fall can reach a monthly low.

Work in the upward direction is still a priority. Until WCZ 1/2 has been tested, another entry into purchases is possible in case of a "false breakdown" of yesterday's low. If this happens, there will be an opportunity to enter with a favorable risk to profit ratio.

An alternative model will be developed if the pair overcomes the WCZ 1/2, and the closure of today's US session occurs above the zone. This will indicate the completion of the downward medium-term cycle and the transition to the phase of the upward impulse.

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/21/2019 10:08:19 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Will the Fed limit itself to one rate cut this year? The pound will remain volatile in the near future

The pound fell in the morning following the release of a report on UK public sector borrowing, while the euro continued to trade in a narrow side channel against the US dollar in anticipation of the July Federal Reserve minutes

The publication of the minutes will show how the committee looks at a further cut in interest rates this year, and to what level the rate can be reduced.

This week, a number of Fed leaders have already expressed their views, but it is premature to draw any conclusions. Let me remind you during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which was held on July 30-31, they decided to lower the interest rate by a quarter point, although some economists suggested that the Fed would lower rates immediately by half a percent. This was the first drop in more than 10 years.

Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that this decrease was purely corrective in the middle of the cycle, and it would not be entirely correct to count on a long reduction cycle in the future. Much will depend on the data on the economy that will come in the 3rd quarter of this year. So far, the only thing that could push the issue of lowering the rate by another quarter of a percentage point into consideration is the aggravation of the trade war between the United States and China, which is now at an impasse. Let me remind you that the new trade duties will come into force on September 1 of this year. In addition, very low inflation continues to be a problem for the Fed.

Given the fact that the unemployment rate in the US is at a record low and household wages increase without creating additional inflationary pressure, the Fed is just thinking about the risks of deflation, which many Asian countries suffer from.

Do not forget about the constant criticism of the work of the committee by Donald Trump, who "hung all the dogs" on the current Fed chairman Jerome Powell for what he delays in lowering rates and resuming the asset purchase program. By the way, the eurozone and the European Central Bank may return to such a program in the near future, which will further strengthen the US dollar against a number of risky assets and create additional problems for the export of American goods. In any case, Powell is still fighting off all threats from the US president, adhering to the neutrality that is so cared for within the Federal Reserve.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it has not changed at all. Bears will attempt to update last week's lows with a test of support levels of 1.1060 and 1.1030. If bulls make an attempt to build an upward correction in a pair, then it is best to consider short positions in the trading instrument from the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.1130. A larger resistance level is the area of 1.1160.

GBPUSD

The British pound slightly fell against the US dollar after the release of the report on net borrowing in the UK public sector. According to data in July this year, borrowing fell by 1.3 billion pounds after a larger reduction of 3.5 billion pounds a year ago. Net public sector demand for cash in the UK in July fell by 14.8 billion pounds against 17.6 billion pounds a year ago. All this suggests that the situation with Brexit, although not so brightly, continues to affect macroeconomic indicators in various fields, which negatively affects the overall economic indicator.

In any case, the pound's further movement as a whole, like this whole year, will continue to be based on rumors and rebuttals from Brexit news, which exacerbates the overall picture and exposes the pound to excessive volatility.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, the upward trend is limited by the resistance of 1.2175, a breakthrough of which will build a new wave of growth and lead to the renewal of highs in the areas of 1.2220 and 1.2270. The medium-term boundary of the downward channel is above this range and it would be impossible to go beyond it without a positive outcome of the situation with Brexit.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 530
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/22/2019 9:15:38 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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GBP/USD. Light at the end of the tunnel: Merkel provoked the growth of the British currency

The pound paired with the dollar today updated three-week highs, reaching the middle of the 22nd figure. The fundamental picture of today did not portend such price leaps: the European voyage of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was more of a formal nature, and Thursday's economic calendar for the GBP/USD pair is completely empty. Nevertheless, bulls of the pair found a reason for the upward impulse - and this reason was provided to them by none other than German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Looking ahead, it is worth noting that the pound is now growing more on emotions - traders of the pair have been trading in constant fear and pessimism about the Brexit prospects for too long. Therefore, when among the gloomy news background a ghostly, but still "light at the end of the tunnel" had appeared, the pound's reaction was not long in coming. Moreover, at the beginning of today the head of the German government met her colleague from Britain with rather harsh rhetoric. She stated that "Britain has 30 days to resolve the Brexit issue to find an alternative to backstop." French President Emmanuel Macron, in turn, noted that there is no more time for additional negotiations on a new agreement - the parties need to build on the main positions of the agreements already reached. Boris Johnson, in his peculiar manner, "accepted the challenge" of Berlin and said that he would spend 30 days allotted to him to convince the EU that there was a viable alternative to the "back-up" mechanism.

This rhetoric did not surprise, but did not upset, investors: even on the eve of Johnson's visit, it became clear that the parties would defend their positions. Earlier this week, the British prime minister sent a written appeal to the head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, with a request to review the deal, primarily regarding the prospects for the Irish border. Brussels rejected the offer and lamented that London did not offer constructive ideas for alternatives to backstop.

In other words, traders were prepared for the fact that the parties at the meeting would only repeat the theses already voiced and disperse "in the corners of the ring" without any result. However, Angela Merkel still went beyond investors' expectations: she announced that London and Brussels will try to create a system that, firstly, preserves the terms of the Belfast Agreement, and secondly, retains Northern Ireland's access to the single EU market. In other words, we are talking about the notorious alternative to the backstop mechanism. The German chancellor emphasized that the parties will try to find a compromise solution in a relatively short time, that is, until October 31. Summing up, Merkel emphasized that London "can still solve the crisis."

In my opinion, the German Chancellor accidentally remembered the Belfast Agreement - after all, the issue of the Irish border is considered not only in terms of economic and customs barriers. Let me remind you that for half a century, there has been a bloody ethnopolitical conflict on the island of Ireland - the rebel forces sought the withdrawal of Northern Ireland from the UK with the subsequent accession to the Republic of Ireland. According to various estimates, about four thousand people died during the long-running conflict. A ceasefire was reached only in 1998, when the parties entered into the aforementioned "Belfast Agreement". The main points of this agreement state that the Northern Irish separatists renounce their territorial claims, and London, in turn, introduces local government and Parliamentarism in this region.

In addition, the agreement reached eliminated the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and since then there has been a special economic zone regime. If London upsets this fragile balance that has been successfully working over the past 20 years, Britain could return to the chaos of political confrontation with the separatist forces of Northern Ireland. In particular, last year the Northern Irish party Sinn Fein announced that it was initiating a new referendum on accession to the Republic of Ireland. Under the conditions of a hard Brexit, taking into account possible economic losses and the effect of a tight border, the outcome of such a referendum is not difficult to predict.

Obviously, both London and Brussels are well aware of the risks they face. That is why the current (albeit symbolic) step of Merkel allowed the pound to demonstrate a significant correction throughout the market, including paired with the dollar. However, long positions on the GBP/USD pair currently look risky - after all, we must not forget that the parties only promised to "consider various options". And it is far from a fact that the proposed options will ultimately be agreed/approved by Johnson, the European Union and, ultimately, by the deputies of the House of Commons. Therefore, with a high degree of probability, the spring of nervousness will continue to contract to a certain limit, putting pressure on the foot. But if the parties still find a compromise and the likelihood of a deal will increase again, this "spring" will fire an impulsive price increase, and marks 1.25-1.27 will not be any limit.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 531
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/26/2019 10:57:36 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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The trade war between China and the United States is in full swing and could lead to a new Fed rate cut

Recently, Donald Trump decided to increase trade duties on a group of goods totaling about $ 300 billion to 15%, which was previously assumed that it would be 10%. These duties will be effective from September 2019. Also, duties will be increased not by 25%, but by 30%, for a group of goods worth $ 250 billion from October 1. This was a response to China's imposition of $ 75 billion in fees, which will be in effect from September 1 to December 15. Beijing's move was also a response to Trump's previously imposed duties. In general, a chain reaction is started. At the same time, the parties continue to report that negotiations are ongoing and from time to time they signal a certain progress that for some reason no one is watching. However, the intensity of trade relations between China and the States is clearly visible, which leads to a slowdown in the global economy, as well as the economies of the States themselves and China. Naturally, not without another message on Twitter from Trump. According to the president of the United States, China should not have introduced new duties, but now, it has run into an increase in duties from the States.

In addition, Donald Trump once again "drove" under the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, writing on Twitter that "he does not know who the worst enemy of America is, Xi Jingping or Jerome Powell." A hint, of course, of Powell's reluctance to take and reduce the rate immediately by 100 points, as Trump wants. A little later, there was a loud statement that China had stolen billions or even trillions of dollars of intellectual property from America for years and was going to continue this activity. Trump said that "it's time to put an end to this." The US president also appealed to American companies having production facilities in China with an appeal to look for an alternative as soon as possible, and even better to return to America. The fact that the production of any product in America is more expensive than in China several times, and accordingly, the price of many goods now produced in China will increase multiple times if production is transferred to the States, Trump does not care. End consumers will pay, and the company will suffer losses, sales of which, of course, will fall due to price growth and reduced demand. Meanwhile, Trump will receive new tax revenues, or not Trump, but the new US President, whose elections will be held in 2020. It is precisely the second term of Trump's presidency that now raises a huge number of questions. China openly expects Trump to lose the election. The longer the trade war with China lasts, the worse America's economy feels, and the better ordinary citizens feel the recession, the less chance that Trump will be re-elected. Even if Trump is right and "China has profited from America for years," the electorate is primarily interested in its own welfare, prices in stores, and the lack of a deficit in the goods it needs. Under Trump, all Chinese products have risen in price, while American or European counterparts are much more expensive. If a trade war also begins with the European Union, then the Americans, who are big fans of the European automobile industry, will also experience a rise in prices for European cars. In this case, it is unlikely that Trump's fans will increase in the election. And, of course, all this will have a negative impact on the US dollar.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 532
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/27/2019 10:59:09 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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TForecast for GBP / USD pair on August 28, 2019

GBP / USD pair
Yesterday, the growth of the pound negates the fall of Monday. However, on the daily chart, it met insurmountable resistance of the indicator line of the balance line (red), which is currently slightly below the indicator line of the MACD trend line (blue).

A double divergence has already formed on the four-hour chart. The reversal signal of the Marlin oscillator has amplified while the market is still "hot". The signal line of the oscillator is still in the growth zone and in fact, the price is higher than all indicator lines. On the daily chart, the price can gather strength and go on the assault to the second target of 1.2350/81. To fix the primary reversal signals, it is necessary to fix the price below the minimum of yesterday, which will also correspond to the price drift under the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart. The MACD line of four-hour scale also tends to be at this level. Probably, a key level is being formed here. In case of a breakout, you should wait before sales.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex


(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 533
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 8/28/2019 10:37:33 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Britain on the verge of a constitutional crisis

The pound fell sharply by 100 points on the news that Boris Johnson could try to interrupt parliament for a month - from September 11 to October 14 - so that Parliament could not stop Johnson from withdrawing Britain out of the EU without an agreement.

This is a constitutional crisis. The queen has such a right to suspend the work of the parliament, at the proposal of the prime minister. However, such an action on this occasion is a clear crisis. Given the minimal majority of conservatives in parliament - it is very likely - to have a political crisis and new elections.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex


(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 534
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 9/1/2019 10:17:44 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Control zones AUDUSD 09/02/19

The August movement is a complex impulse structure. At the beginning of last week, there was consolidation above WCZ 1/2, which indicates an upward priority. Today, the WCZ 1/2 0.6723-0.6716 test is taking place again. Purchases from this zone are profitable, since the growth target continues to be the weekly control zone 0.6838-0.6825.

The flat movement of August implies the continuation of work from monthly extremes, so they should be taken into account in trading plans. To break the ascending structure, it will be necessary to close today's trading below 0.6716. This will make it possible to resume work in a downward direction. The first goal of the fall will be the low of August.

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
]

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 535
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 9/2/2019 7:10:49 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Weekly market review

Greetings, dear traders! Congratulations to everyone on the beginning of autumn and, hopefully, on the increase in volatility associated with the end of the holiday period, including the bank traders, and the Forex market, as you know, is the interbank market, and the private traders who are here – random people.

The first week of autumn is an important trading period associated with a change in order placements in anticipation of non-farm payrolls, and after them. Often, it is the "nanoc" that one ends and other tendencies of instruments related to the American dollar begin. Today, Monday, according to most professional traders, is the worst time to open new trading positions and decide on a change in trading trends. Moreover, it is also today, September 2, 2019 - is a holiday in the USA and Canada - Labor Day. Therefore, let us congratulate the United States labor teams on this holiday!

For us, this means that trading during this evening will take place in narrow ranges and it is not worth waiting for super-movements from the markets today. Only "Donald Trump" can break the "trade silence" with his Twitter. Sometimes, it seems to me that Donald is an avid trader who "rules" his unprofitable positions with his own, often diametrically opposite, statements on the network.

Today, the main trading idea related to the American dollar for me is to strengthen the dollar in USD/JPY and GBP/USD, which gave last week. I also have very interesting ideas on certain crosses, which will be published soon.

What to do for traders in a period of low volatility? Of course, developing trading skills in the "strategy tester", as well as working on the analysis of profitable / unprofitable positions of the last week, in order to understand - how you earn and how much you lose and at what volumes and at what time you have it is obtained most efficiently. Good luck in trading! And see you at the evening reviews of cross-courses!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 536
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 9/4/2019 1:20:17 AM   
IFX Yvonne

 

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 04/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the low at the level of 1.0926, broke above the technical resistance at the level of 1.0964 and made a local high at the level of 1.0979. The momentum is off the negative area and the stochastic is off the oversold territory. The next target for the local pull-back or correction is seen at the level of 1.0997. Nevertheless, if bears continue to make pressure on the market, the next target for them is seen at the level of 1.0908, which is technical support at the weekly time frame.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1285
WR2 - 1.1224
WR1 - 1.1084
Weekly Pivot Point - 1.1025
WS1 - 1.0886
WS2 - 1.0818
WS3 - 1.0681

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0814 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1250.



*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 537
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 9/4/2019 10:02:42 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Golden cosmos

Good evening, dear traders. As promised, here's the evening forecast for gold. Sorry, was not able to publish it in the morning, because it has already started to work.

The trade wars drove gold to an incredible $ 1,550 per troy ounce. This is the largest gold trend. for many years! Over the past year, gold has passed a record of 36,000p and continues to storm the high, knocking out the stops of medium-term sellers. And just yesterday, according to perhaps the most effective Price Action trading strategy, a pattern called "daily absorption in the trend" has appeared - which speaks of an ongoing trend and after which it is recommended to buy. Today, to the American session, there was a magnificent rollback, allowing you to go into longs at the best price.

On the other hand, sellers who have been selling gold from highs for two weeks now have to hide their risks only for one single extreme - this year's high - quotation 1554. Although, gold has not yet risen above. This is a trap that will be slammed in the near future and trap sellers.

I propose to take a closer look from the rollbacks to the longs - with a take on updating 1554 and higher. Often breakdowns of weekly extremes for gold are very volatile - and give a positive slippage, on which you can earn good profit. This is the first part of the plan.

The second part is for those traders who are buying in a large amount (scalpers). The idea is very simple and is to work after the breakdown of 1554, which for example to 1560-1570, and then to return to the broken level of 1554. This is an old scalping technique in the overbought market to work on the consolidations of large buyers after the breakdown of key extremes. It is due to this that the price decline to a broken level, which becomes support.

Be that as it may, you can earn in both cases.

I wish you success in trading and follow the policy of money management!

News are provided by InstaForex

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 538
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 9/5/2019 8:31:13 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Taking profit on USD/JPY and GOLD

This is not a random number, because the method of "hunting for stops" involves work tied to the mistakes of bank traders. The average amount of stops which makes these 100p. And you can easily check it by looking at the open positions of banks online right now. Thus, we still have positions in crosses - which are also all in the "plus".

In addition, fix part of the profit from the position on gold left overnight + 430p, and hold the last part at the level of 1500:

Tomorrow is an important day for currency traders. I have noticed many times that if you give out before non-game plus - you have to leave, because the news is extremely unpredictable. Therefore, I prefer to trade after news trends, and for this, you need to have patience. The best choice for traders to trade on the USD news (if you are not a stop hunter) is to sit them in crosses. And fortunately, our diversification tactics make this easy to do. We continue to hold positive positions on AUD/CHF or NZD/CHF according to the recommendations given earlier.

Good luck in the trading and see you at the next reviews!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 539
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 9/9/2019 11:41:17 PM   
IFX Yvonne

 

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Joined: 7/19/2017
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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 10, 2019

EUR/USD

On Monday, the euro made another attempt to work out the target level of 1.1073 - the Fibonacci level of 123.6%, but this time stopped short of positive news about the growth of Germany's trade balance in July from 18.0 billion euros to 20.2 billion and ideas of Germany to establish a parallel state structure for attracting investment through increased public debt, which turned out to be insufficient.



On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator shows the intention of a reversal down from the boundary with the growth territory. This is the first, but weak and the only sign of a possible price reversal down, there are no others even on the four-hour chart.



On H4, the price develops above the indicator lines of balance and MACD. Marlin is also in the upward trend zone. If the price consolidates above the level of 1.1073, growth to the Fibonacci level of 110.0% is possible at the price of 1.1157. The development of the downward trend is possible after the price goes below the MACD line on H4 (1.1006) and under the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.0986. In this case, the target level is the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.0844.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
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