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RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 10/9/2019 10:46:47 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Gold breaks into battle

Gold quickly returned above the psychologically important level of $1,500 per ounce due to weak statistics on US business activity. The United States feel the pain of trade wars and may well pull the rest of the world into the abyss, as has happened in the past more than once. At the same time, neither the US labor market report nor Jerome Powell's statement about the launch of the asset-purchase program made an impression on the precious metal. Obviously, investors are waiting for something. It is easy to guess that this is news from the negotiating table of Washington and Beijing.

Despite the fact that the Federal Reserve chairman made it clear that the upcoming program for the purchase of short-term securities is not QE, its start can be considered a positive factor for the bulls on XAU/USD. Increasing the activity of a large buyer is a good argument in favor of rising prices and falling profitability. Non-interest-bearing gold is not able to compete with bonds if rates on them rise. If they, on the contrary, decline, the precious metal begins to enjoy increased popularity. This is confirmed by the high demand for products of ETF funds. Their stocks have been increasing for 17 consecutive days, which is the longest winning streak since 2009. The total size of the indicator is only 35 tons below the record high that took place in 2012.

Gold ETF Stock Dynamics

The strong growth in stocks of specialized exchange-traded funds and the stability of gold against a strong dollar allow Citigroup to adhere to its bullish forecast for XAU/USD. The company believes that the precious metal will grow to $1,700 per ounce within 6-12 months. But on the side of its fans plays and increased activity of central banks! Thus, the People's Bank of China has been building up gold reserves for the 10th consecutive month. During this period, it acquired 99.8 tons. As a result, stocks rose to 62.64 million ounces. According to the World Gold Council, 14 regulators from various countries continue to diversify their reserves in favor of precious metals in order to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. In 2018, central banks from around the world bought $27 billion worth of gold, a record high.

The dynamics of gold reserves in China

While central banks and ETF fans are buying gold, speculators prefer to exit. In the week of October 1, their net longs fell to their lowest level since late July. It's not necessary to be frightened by it. Financial managers quite logically take profits on the eve of an important event - trade negotiations between the US and China. Most likely, their impact on financial markets will be much greater than the publication of the minutes of the September meetings of the Fed and the ECB.

Technically, the "Splash and Shelf" pattern takes place on the daily gold chart. Breakthrough of the lower boundary of the consolidation range of $1490-1520 will launch another correctional wave in the direction of $1440-1445 per ounce. In contrast, a successful assault on the resistance at $1520 will strengthen the risks of restoring the "bullish" trend and continuing the rally in the direction of the target at 161.8% on the AB=CD pattern.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex



(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 561
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 10/10/2019 10:41:52 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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GBP/USD continues to grow, despite weak data from the UK

The continued sale of the dollar helped maintain the positive dynamics of the pound, but otherwise the prospects for the British currency are not very good. The UK economy fell by 0.1% in August against the expected stable value. Indicators of manufacturing and industrial production also fell short of forecasts. While the GBP/USD pair maintains its upward trend, although it has slightly deviated from recent highs in response to weak economic data. Demonstrating the miracles of resilience in the 1.2200 mark for the third consecutive session, the pair was able to restore positive movement, however, only amid continued active sales of the dollar.

In principle, weaker than expected macroeconomic data in the UK could not have a significant impact. Nevertheless, the positive impulse did not receive a new charge, while the pair confidently holds the blow and tries to gain a foothold at a new height, despite the fact that the UK monthly GDP report showed that the economy unexpectedly declined by 0.1% in August. In addition to this, UK manufacturing and manufacturing declined more than expected in August, although this drop was partially offset by a lower-than-expected trade deficit. Now it will be interesting to see if the pair can benefit from the positive movement or fail again at higher levels amid continuing uncertainty surrounding Britain's exit from the European Union.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 562
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 10/13/2019 8:37:04 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Preview of the new week. The EU summit, Brexit, inflation in the European Union

It is safe to say that we can call the new week, the"Week of Great Britain." Most of the macroeconomic reports planned for the week will concern the GBP/USD pair. Most of the reports regarding the GBP/USD pair will come from the UK. In addition to economic data, it will be decided whether a new Brexit date will be postponed, whether Boris Johnson and the European government will be able to agree on a "deal" and whether the British Parliament will block a new deal if, by some miracle, Brussels and London succeed to reach consensus on all contentious issues in five days? Thus, the EUR/USD pair may feel relatively calm, just as it did the previous week, but the British pound is likely to break volatility records and very often change its direction if the news comes mixed. But consider all the data in more detail.

As we said, most statistics come from the UK. On Tuesday, this will be data on unemployment and changes in average wages for August, on Wednesday - the consumer price index for September, on Thursday - retail sales and the European Union summit on Brexit starts. In addition, the United States will receive information on retail sales for September (Wednesday). However, despite the importance of future reports, we believe that the main attention of traders will be focused on Brexit, on the EU summit and on any information from Boris Johnson, Donald Tusk, Jean-Claude Juncker, Michel Barnier, Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron. It is these leaders who most often speak out about the promotion of the Brexit negotiation process and have the greatest influence on it. Regarding the chances of fulfilling one or another Brexit option, we recommend that traders not try to guess the future. Brexit has repeatedly shown to all market participants that trying to predict how everything will end is an ungrateful affair. The growth of the pound was often associated with rumors and unfounded market expectations, which each time gave way to a stronger fall in the British currency. That is why the movement of the pound/dollar pair this week may well be illogical and consistent with the nature of the incoming news, and all macroeconomic reports can be completely ignored. Thus, the main principle will be the "principle of caution" when trading GBP/USD in the new week.

As for the EUR/USD pair, here from macroeconomic events we can note the report on the change in industrial production in August on Monday, the inflation report for September on Wednesday. The greatest interest, of course, will be caused by the consumer price index, which in recent months has fallen to absolute lows. A value below 1.0% will no longer be considered just low, but critical. And then it can be expected from the ECB and a new reduction in key rates, the quantitative stimulus program in the first months of its operation is unlikely to be changed, but in the future it can be expanded. And for the euro, these are all potential bearish factors. We still believe that in the confrontation with the dollar, a single European trump card is very small. And at the moment, we consider the main factor behind the growth of the euro a banal technical need to be adjusted from time to time. There is no positive news from the EU. Recently, everything is not good in the United States too, but America's economy is still stronger, macroeconomic indicators are higher, monetary policy is tougher. It is these factors that continue to play for the dollar.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 563
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 10/14/2019 10:53:03 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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USD/CAD - Heading downwards

Greetings, dear traders. This time, I will show you a long-term recommendation on an instrument such as USD / CAD.

What is interesting in this instrument now? First of all, the data on unemployment from Canada came out last Friday. Typically, these reports come out simultaneously with American Non-farm (NFP), but this time, the publication was separate. With this impulse, the Canadian dollar strengthened strongly against the US dollar, completely absorbing the abnormal growth a week earlier. At the moment, this indicates a very strong seller in the market.

Since the plan is long-term, its implementation can take from several days to several weeks. Thus, it makes sense to wait for a rollback and consider selling on smaller TFs.

It's important to understand that a lot of data will be released on Wednesday, such as the base index of retail sales for the American dollar and inflation for the Canadian one. Moreover, regular oil reserves will also affect the Canadian dollar. What is more reasonable here would be to expect the continuation of decline precisely after the release of all these news on Wednesday.

I wish you success in trading and big profits!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex



(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 564
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 10/15/2019 9:01:00 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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EUR/USD - through thorns to the stars!

Greetings, dear traders. It is time to remember about EUR/USD, which has successfully fulfilled our previous plans. Following GBP/USD, the European currency is now demonstrating a strong bullish direction. It's easy to guess that all these movements are connected with the next portion of news regarding Brexit. If you omit all the fundamental details and focus on how to make money from it, the answer is simple. To take a neat positions in the purchases with a pullback. At the same time, wherever you try to buy, the extreme point of the scenario cancellation is today's minimum at the quote of 1.0991. Therefore, you can limit losses to this level. It is recommended to holding purchases (at least partially) at the level of 1.1064, since this is an important level for sellers over the past few days.

I wish you success in trading and big profits!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 565
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 10/16/2019 7:32:06 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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GBPUSD: The evening promised to be hot. Michel Barnier was optimistic about the agreement on Brexit, but the main move for the Unionist party. The risk of extending the UK's exit

The British pound continues to storm, and after the morning "stuffing" that the deal could be disrupted due to a number of disagreements, the pound resumed its growth on statements from representatives of the EU and the UK. As it became known, according to representatives of the parties, negotiations between the UK and the EU are coming to an end, but the key problems have not yet been resolved. On Wednesday afternoon, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier is due to meet with diplomatic representatives of the bloc countries. However, the meeting has been postponed to a later time.

This was done so that the British prime minister could manage to negotiate an agreement with the Democratic Union Party, since it is precisely its leaders who are still threatening to disrupt Downing Street's plans. Let me remind you that the deal will include the establishment of a regulatory and customs border for the Irish Sea.

Barnier's meeting with European leaders will give an assessment and recommendations on whether to sign an agreement at the EU summit scheduled for late this week or not. European Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos has already stated that significant unresolved issues remain in the negotiations on Brexit, noting that Barnier has already submitted his report to the European Commission. In it, the chief negotiator described the negotiations as constructive. Barnier was also optimistic that a deal with Brexit could be reached before the end of this week, but, according to some sources, the report also contains information on the need to extend the UK term for EU membership, which is scheduled for October 31. An extension is necessary even if a deal is reached.

The market completely ignored the data that the inflation rate in the UK remained stable in September this year. Most of the growth was maintained due to higher prices for hotel services and furniture. According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics, CPI increased by 1.7% in September compared with the same period last year. In August of this year, the UK CPI was also 1.7%. Let me remind you that the target level of the Bank of England is 2%.

Slowing inflation will help the regulator resort to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy, which is seriously affected by the situation with Brexit and trade conflicts.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, only a breakthrough of the resistance of 1.2840 can lead to the continuation of the upward rally to the area of highs at 1.2920 and 1.2980. In case the pound declines on the evening news, which I mentioned above. Support will be provided by levels 1.2680 and 1.2560.

EURUSD

Eurozone data today did not cause major changes in the EURUSD pair. According to a Eurostat statistics agency report, annual inflation in the eurozone slowed again, which is bad news for the European Central Bank, which in September announced the start of a new phase of stimulating the economy. Thus, the CPI Eurozone CPI in September rose by 0.8% compared to the same period last year.

Meanwhile, the positive balance of foreign trade in the eurozone increased and amounted to 14.7 billion euros in August 2019 against 11.9 billion euros in August 2018. However, trade conflicts, for which there are no solutions, continue to negatively affect the indicator.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. Bulls will continue to fight for the resistance of 1.1060, consolidation above which can provide risky assets to new buyers. If pressure on the euro returns, and this can happen after another unsuccessful attempt to break the resistance at 1.1060, then you can still return to long positions from support in the area of 1.1020, but larger long positions are best postponed until the low of 1.0990 is updated.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex



(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 566
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 10/17/2019 7:25:25 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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GBP/USD. Turns of the British currency: Johnson repeats the path of Theresa May

Passion for Brexit reaches its zenith. In the afternoon, the pound paired with the dollar soared to the borders of the 30th figure (that is, to 5-month highs), responding to a statement by European Commission President Juncker that the deal between London and Brussels is "ready." But literally an hour later, the pair collapsed 200 points down after the first comments by representatives of the British Parliament. The opposition did not skimp on epithets: in particular, Jeremy Corbyn called the draft deal "corrupt", adding that Johnson's dealings were "even worse than Theresa May". However, despite such harsh comments, the market still expects the British prime minister to submit the draft deal to the House of Commons on Saturday.

For the sixth consecutive day, the pound is subject to strong volatility, showing unprecedented price fluctuations, both in the direction of growth and a downward course. The last time such powerful price spurts were observed in October 2018, when the parties were one step away from signing the deal. The pair jumped from the 34th to the 42nd figure in a few weeks. But then the events did not unfold so rapidly, although in general, the situations are of a similar nature.

At that time, Michel Barnier, the chief negotiator from the European Union, was the main newsmaker. Exactly a year ago, he said that the deal could already be concluded during the EU summit, which, like this year, was held on October 17-18. Brussels and London then were able to find a common denominator in many key issues, moreover, within the framework of Theresa May's Chequers plan, which the future Prime Minister Boris Johnson so eagerly criticized. May proposed to solve the Irish question in a different way: she agreed to establish checkpoints on the border and introduce "certain administrative procedures". EU representatives refused to consider other options, and interpreted the proposed conditions as a compromise. As you know, the deputies of the House of Commons categorically rejected the proposed conditions, failing the vote three times.

The Irish question is still a central issue today. On the one hand, Johnson made more significant concessions from the European Union: the customs border will pass through the Irish Sea, and the same customs rules will apply in Northern Ireland as in the rest of the UK. But on the other hand, such concessions did not satisfy the Northern Irish Unionists. After a two-day political bidding, the DUP issued an official statement declining the deal. In their opinion, the proposed agreement "does not meet the long-term interests of Northern Ireland", and in the short term, residents of this region may face a significant increase in prices.

As mentioned above, Labour also criticized Johnson's deal. And not just because of the Irish border. According to Jeremy Corbyn, the economic part of the agreement threatens the food security of Great Britain, and can also lead to "violation of the rights of workers and environmental standards." Also, according to the Labour leader, the deal will be a blow to the British health care system. Representatives of the Scottish National Party (which has 35 members of the British Parliament) have joined Johnson's critics, adding that they will not vote for the deal.

Thus, at the moment it is not clear how the prime minister plans to "push through" the deal through the millstones of Parliament. Without the support of the Youth Democratic Party, the Labour Party and the Scottish nationalists, he will have to rely on the consolidation of Conservative deputies (20 of whom he expelled from the party for indiscipline) and representatives of other political forces.

At the same time, according to information from the British press, Johnson in Parliament may express his readiness to violate the law, obliging him to ask Brussels to postpone Brexit. This information may be the usual "bluff" on the part of the current prime minister, but, given the odiousness of his personality, such a scenario cannot be ruled out.

In general, according to most experts, if Johnson fails to agree on a deal in Parliament, he will initiate early parliamentary elections to bring the draft deal back to the new House of Commons.

Thus, Johnson will have a difficult battle in the walls of Parliament. Judging by the dynamics of the pound, traders do not lose hope of agreeing on a deal this Saturday: otherwise, the GBP/USD pair will return first to the middle of the 24th figure, and then (less impulsive) to the levels of annual lows, that is, to the bottom of the 20th figure. If a "miracle" happens and the prime minister finds votes in Parliament, the pound paired with the dollar will fly up to 1.35-1.37, up to the 40th figure, after the deal between London and Brussels is officially agreed. And although these price values look abnormally high, it is worth recalling that on the eve of the 2016 referendum, the GBP/USD pair was trading in the area of 1.43-1.46, and after the announcement of the results, the plebiscite plunged to 1.25-1.27 in a few weeks, followed by a decline to the bottom of 20- x figures. "The return trip to an upward direction" may not be so impulsive, but at the same time, the resolution of many years of intrigue will allow the pair to grow by at least 500-600 points. As the saying goes, The Show Must Go On ...

Analysis are provided by InstaForex


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