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RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 3/8/2020 10:49:06 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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GBP/USD. Trumps of the pound and the dollar's hopeless prospects

EUR/USD
The pound ended the trading week on a major note: paired with the dollar, the pound was able to return to the area of the 30th figure, after falling to around 1.2725 at the end of February. Such dynamics is explained not only by the weakness of the US currency. The buyers of GBP/USD gave a rather positive assessment of the first results of the negotiation process between Brussels and London, although representatives of the parties announced serious disagreements that could not be overcome yet. Nevertheless, the negotiators also voiced encouraging theses - it was on them that the market focused its attention.

In particular, the head of the European delegation Michel Barnier expressed confidence that they will be able to negotiate with the UK, despite the "very, very serious disagreements." He noted that the parties initially had completely different positions on key issues, so these differences in views were not a surprise to anyone. Nevertheless, he was optimistic about the prospects for negotiations.

The market seized on this phrase, although it is actually unclear how the parties plan to find a common denominator. Barnier named four points on which there are serious differences. According to him, if no compromise is reached on these issues, an agreement is unlikely to be signed.

First, it is about maintaining European standards that would guarantee equal trading opportunities. At the moment, London does not want to oblige itself to comply with these standards, and most importantly, it is opposed to the creation of appropriate mechanisms that could monitor the situation and record "unjustified commercial advantages".

Secondly, the British refuse to recognize not only the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, but also the European Convention on Human Rights and the rules for the exchange of data. As Barnier noted, if the parties do not come to an understanding on this item, then further cooperation in this area will be "carried out in accordance with the norms of world law". Here you can also mention the contradictions in the field of law enforcement: we are talking about coordinated actions to combat terrorism, financial crime, organized crime and so on.

Another contradiction is more fundamental. We are talking about the legal basis for future relationships. Britain plans to enter into several agreements – in every area where this is necessary. Brussels insists on signing a single, comprehensive agreement. In addition, the UK does not want to agree to common terms for both sides in the deal.

And the last, fourth, disagreement is about fishing. London insists that fishing matters be discussed on a regular basis, that is, annually. On the contrary, Europeans want to include fishing in the structure of the general economic agreement. According to Barnier, the British position on the issue of fishing is "unacceptable".

As you can see, the positions of the parties are still at different poles, and the first round of negotiations was inconclusive. But the market nevertheless "trusted" Barnier's optimism, which expressed confidence that Brussels and London would still come to a common opinion on all key issues.

It is worth noting that last week, figuratively speaking, Brexit "did not prevent" the GBP/USD from growing, while the main driving force of the upward movement was the dollar, which swooped down on all fronts. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York significantly lowered its forecasts for US GDP growth in the first quarter of this year. While the previous estimate was at 2.15%, expectations have now dropped to 1.7%. Comments from Donald Trump's economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, also put pressure on greenback. According to him, certain sectors of the US economy will feel the "strong negative impact" of the epidemic, but it is "too early" to make decisions about supporting the economy with fiscal measures. At the same time, Trump himself is demanding that the Fed should hold another round of rate cuts.

In this case, we can talk about a certain de-correlation. For example, if the head of the Bank of England (Andrew Bailey) insists on applying fiscal responses, the White House is trying to offset the impending threat with monetary policy. And the Fed seems to agree with this scenario. At least, the latest comments from the Fed representatives (Bullard, Kaplan) indicate a willingness to further soften monetary policy. While representatives of the BoE and the ECB are increasingly reminded that they are limited in their actions – in particular, Bailey allowed a rate cut to 0.1%, but at the same time excluded the option of reducing to a negative area.

Thus, the pound is still in a winning position relative to the US currency. According to general market expectations, the Fed will lower the rate by another 25 basis points at the March meeting, and later, by another 25 basis points by the beginning of summer. In turn, the BoE can maintain a wait-and-see attitude on March 26, saving an arsenal of available actions for the future. Such a de-correlation provides support for GBP/USD, especially against the background of quite calm rhetoric of the Brexit negotiators. If this fundamental background for the dollar and the pound persists next week, the pair can test the next resistance level, which is located at 1.3105 - this is the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 661
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 3/8/2020 10:50:25 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Joined: 5/16/2014
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GBP/USD. Trumps of the pound and the dollar's hopeless prospects

EUR/USD
The pound ended the trading week on a major note: paired with the dollar, the pound was able to return to the area of the 30th figure, after falling to around 1.2725 at the end of February. Such dynamics is explained not only by the weakness of the US currency. The buyers of GBP/USD gave a rather positive assessment of the first results of the negotiation process between Brussels and London, although representatives of the parties announced serious disagreements that could not be overcome yet. Nevertheless, the negotiators also voiced encouraging theses - it was on them that the market focused its attention.

In particular, the head of the European delegation Michel Barnier expressed confidence that they will be able to negotiate with the UK, despite the "very, very serious disagreements." He noted that the parties initially had completely different positions on key issues, so these differences in views were not a surprise to anyone. Nevertheless, he was optimistic about the prospects for negotiations.

The market seized on this phrase, although it is actually unclear how the parties plan to find a common denominator. Barnier named four points on which there are serious differences. According to him, if no compromise is reached on these issues, an agreement is unlikely to be signed.

First, it is about maintaining European standards that would guarantee equal trading opportunities. At the moment, London does not want to oblige itself to comply with these standards, and most importantly, it is opposed to the creation of appropriate mechanisms that could monitor the situation and record "unjustified commercial advantages".

Secondly, the British refuse to recognize not only the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, but also the European Convention on Human Rights and the rules for the exchange of data. As Barnier noted, if the parties do not come to an understanding on this item, then further cooperation in this area will be "carried out in accordance with the norms of world law". Here you can also mention the contradictions in the field of law enforcement: we are talking about coordinated actions to combat terrorism, financial crime, organized crime and so on.

Another contradiction is more fundamental. We are talking about the legal basis for future relationships. Britain plans to enter into several agreements – in every area where this is necessary. Brussels insists on signing a single, comprehensive agreement. In addition, the UK does not want to agree to common terms for both sides in the deal.

And the last, fourth, disagreement is about fishing. London insists that fishing matters be discussed on a regular basis, that is, annually. On the contrary, Europeans want to include fishing in the structure of the general economic agreement. According to Barnier, the British position on the issue of fishing is "unacceptable".

As you can see, the positions of the parties are still at different poles, and the first round of negotiations was inconclusive. But the market nevertheless "trusted" Barnier's optimism, which expressed confidence that Brussels and London would still come to a common opinion on all key issues.

It is worth noting that last week, figuratively speaking, Brexit "did not prevent" the GBP/USD from growing, while the main driving force of the upward movement was the dollar, which swooped down on all fronts. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York significantly lowered its forecasts for US GDP growth in the first quarter of this year. While the previous estimate was at 2.15%, expectations have now dropped to 1.7%. Comments from Donald Trump's economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, also put pressure on greenback. According to him, certain sectors of the US economy will feel the "strong negative impact" of the epidemic, but it is "too early" to make decisions about supporting the economy with fiscal measures. At the same time, Trump himself is demanding that the Fed should hold another round of rate cuts.

In this case, we can talk about a certain de-correlation. For example, if the head of the Bank of England (Andrew Bailey) insists on applying fiscal responses, the White House is trying to offset the impending threat with monetary policy. And the Fed seems to agree with this scenario. At least, the latest comments from the Fed representatives (Bullard, Kaplan) indicate a willingness to further soften monetary policy. While representatives of the BoE and the ECB are increasingly reminded that they are limited in their actions – in particular, Bailey allowed a rate cut to 0.1%, but at the same time excluded the option of reducing to a negative area.

Thus, the pound is still in a winning position relative to the US currency. According to general market expectations, the Fed will lower the rate by another 25 basis points at the March meeting, and later, by another 25 basis points by the beginning of summer. In turn, the BoE can maintain a wait-and-see attitude on March 26, saving an arsenal of available actions for the future. Such a de-correlation provides support for GBP/USD, especially against the background of quite calm rhetoric of the Brexit negotiators. If this fundamental background for the dollar and the pound persists next week, the pair can test the next resistance level, which is located at 1.3105 - this is the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 662
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 3/9/2020 11:46:02 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Forecast for EUR/USD on March 10, 2020

EUR/USD
In the last three weeks of growth, the euro corrected 38.2% of the fall from February 2018 to February 2020. Today, in the Asian session, the euro's fall is more than 70 points, which shows the clear intention of the price to close the gap on Monday. Next, we are waiting for the testing of the Fibonacci level at the price of 1.1200, which coincides with the top on December 13 (marked with a tick).

Fixing the price below this level will direct the price to the support of the MACD line (1.1085). Fixing the price below it will confirm the market's intention to continue selling euros.

As seen on the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator went down sharply. This is a sign of the market's intention to move down. The support for the MACD line at 1.1200 coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci level on the higher-scale chart. Accordingly, the level is strong and requires increased care. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 663
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 3/10/2020 10:19:02 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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How is coronavirus spreading around the planet? The US, Italy, Spain, China and Iran are at high risk

The Chinese pneumonia virus COVID-2019 has "captured" more than 100 countries around the world. More than 105,000 people are infected, mostly in China. The largest number of infected and deaths is in the "hotbed" of infection - China. Apart from China, Italy has been the most affected at the moment, with more than 6,000 cases of infection. More than 200 people were killed. The entire country is under quarantine. Schools and cinemas have been closed, all sporting events have been canceled, and any events where a large number of people may gather are prohibited. Some regions with the highest number of cases are quarantined. Citizens are not allowed to leave their homes without good reason. According to the current plan, such measures have been taken until April 3. No one knows what will happen after April 3. Everything will depend on whether it is possible to stop the spread of infection in the country. The Italian authorities decided to involve an additional 20,000 doctors and nurses in the fight against the virus. The main thing now is to stop the infection. It is noted that about 600 people are in intensive care, but about 600 have fully recovered. The average age of those who died from the virus is 81 years. It follows that first of all deaths are recorded in the elderly. People with weak, due to age-related reasons, immunity and health. 80% of people who died from the virus had other diseases. Thus, on the example of Italy, we can conclude that the virus is not fatal, but can lead to a fatal outcome if the patient has poor health. Thus, the elderly and people with weak immune systems are primarily at risk.

About 3000 cases of infection have been recorded in the UK, five have died. All of them were elderly people with poor health. All who contacted the dead are isolated, including medical staff. The United States also recorded several hundred cases of the disease (about 700). Most are in the New York State, where a state of emergency has already been declared. Several people died. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo believes mass quarantine is the best way to slow the spread of infection. Washington state has also been one of the most infected. The state recorded about 70 cases of the disease. As in many other countries, those who die from the virus are elderly people. In addition, a large number of patients were recorded in Iran - about 6,000. 145 people died. At the same time, firstly, representatives of the medical sphere believe that the real numbers can be much higher, and secondly, two representatives of the Parliament have already died from the coronavirus.

Meanwhile, panic is brewing in countries with the highest incidence of the disease. Thank God that so far this word only refers to the desire of people to stock up on all necessary products and not to leave the house without unnecessary need. Therefore, a shortage of certain foods may occur. For example, in the UK, Secretary of Health Matt Hancock urged people not to buy more than they needed, assuring that there was enough food for everyone. The minister also assured that he works with supermarkets in the direction of delivering food and necessary goods to the home in case people have to isolate themselves. However, representatives of UK supermarkets argue that the demand for the most necessary food products is "going wild" and cast doubt on the fact that the authorities will be able to keep the situation under control and provide all citizens with food and basic necessities. One of the directors of large supermarket chains even stated that there were no contacts with the government.

Quite unexpectedly, Spain took the lead in the number of cases, where according to the latest data, the number of infected exceeded 1200. According to the Minister of Health of Spain, Salvador Illa, the situation with coronavirus in the country has significantly worsened in recent days. Most infections have been reported in Madrid. Most of the cases are elderly people in nursing homes and employees of these homes. Two weeks quarantine has also been announced in Madrid with the closure of all schools, universities and kindergartens.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 664
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 3/11/2020 11:05:07 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Forecast for GBP/USD on March 12, 2020

GBP/USD
The Bank of England lowered its key rate from 0.75% to 0.25% on Wednesday. The pound's initial reaction was to fall by 100 points, but then there was an increase of 150 points, and the day was closed with a loss of 65 points. Volatility in the markets has returned, but the overall trend for strengthening the dollar remains, because the situation in the British economy is significantly deteriorating; according to the latest data, GDP for January showed 0.0%, the trade balance deteriorated from -1.4 billion pounds to -3.7 billion, industrial production decreased by 0.1%, production in the construction sector showed -0.8% in January.

On the daily scale chart, the surge in growth was stopped by the balance line (red indicator line), meaning that volatility remained within the downward trend. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is fixed in the decreasing trend zone. Now the target of the pound is the 110.0% Fibonacci level at 1.2647. Overcoming the level opens the second target for the reaction level of 123.6% at the price of 1.2538.

On the H4 chart, the price is fixed under the balance line and the MACD line, the Marlin is declining and does not show signs of a reversal. We are waiting for the British pound to fall to the designated goals.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 665
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 3/12/2020 6:11:01 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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EURUSD reaches key Fibonacci level and bounces

EURUSD was expected to pull back towards the key Fibonacci levels we have mentioned in our previous analysis. EURUSD has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and has bounced off of it.

EURUSD has pulled back as a back test of the broken wedge pattern. Price has so far reached the 61.8% level and is bouncing. As we explained in our last Ichimoku cloud analysis, we had a weak sell signal and the first target was the cloud support at 1.1130. Price surpassed our target and reached 1.1060.

So far the back test is successful and supportive of the bullish continuation of the break out. If price pushes back inside the wedge pattern and stays below, then this would be a very bearish sign.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 666
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 3/18/2020 4:05:38 AM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Trader's diary for March 18, 2020, Oil fell amid coronavirus outbreak

Oil, as can be seen on the chart, fell to $ 26 for two main reasons, first, OPEC Price War in Russia. Second, the global crisis due to coronavirus which leads to a drop in oil demand.

EURUSD:
The euro is trying to start a new wave of decline against the dollar.

Euro is in a fundamentally bad condition as Europe has become the center of the coronavirus pandemic, and the strongest economies namely Italy, Germany and France are at their most vulnerable state. Due to this, the economy will suffer serious losses.

From an economic point of view, the euro can fall right down to parity with the dollar.

You can keep sales from 1.1053.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 667
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 3/19/2020 12:06:38 AM   
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Forecast for EUR/USD on March 19, 2020

EUR/USD
Yesterday, trading in the euro took place in a wide range of about 250 points, this morning the price tested the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart and returned to the red indicator line balance, and opening day occurred under this line, which speaks of the intention of the price to decline further, the market came under the control of the bears. The goal of the decline is the low line of the price channel around 1.0640.

On the four-hour chart, yesterday's convergence on the Marlin oscillator turned out to be broken, although its effect was reflected in more than 80-point growth in the euro. Currently, Marlin is developing in its own downward channel, the lower boundary of which is very, very low.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 668
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 3/20/2020 12:20:52 AM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Forecast for EUR/USD on March 20, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro collapsed by 250 points on Thursday, pausing on the embedded line of the price channel of the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator slightly turned upwards, which may develop into a short-term price correction, as an option, to the February 20 low at the price of 1.0778. The departure of the quote under the price channel line (1.0644) opens the target at 1.0493 - the February 2017 low. Price taking above 1.0778 will extend the correction to 1.0879 - to the October 1, 2019 low.

The Marlin oscillator also reverses upwards on the four-hour chart, remaining within its own descending channel. We are waiting for the correction to be completed as well as for the euro to fall.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 669
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 3/22/2020 11:56:41 PM   
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Forecast for EUR/USD on March 23, 2020

EUR/USD
The price was marked on the support line of the embedded price channel in the region of 1.0636 on Thursday, Friday, and today. Finally, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned upwards on the daily chart, which creates the prerequisite for corrective growth to the level of 1.0879 - to a low of October 1, 2019. Overcoming the Friday low of 1.0636 opens the target 1.0493 - the low of February 2017.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator did not form a strong convergence, the signal line has not yet left the zone of negative indicators. The indicator potential may be enough to work out the price of correctional target of 1.0879.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 670
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 3/24/2020 1:05:21 AM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Forecast for EUR/USD on March 24, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro showed a timid correction growth on Monday, but this growth has become confident today in the Asian session. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator continues to gain strength. The first goal of the correction is still the 1.0879 level – the October 1, 2019 low, its overcoming opens the second goal of 1.0967 – the area where the 38.2% Fibonacci level intersects with the embedded line of the price channel and, possibly, also the MACD line, which is approaching this point. The level is created strong, so now we expect the euro to fall from it with a high probability.

The Marlin oscillator strengthened the growth on the four-hour chart, the signal line was fixed in the zone of positive values – the first goal of 1.0879 is likely to be taken, and the pair's quote will continue to grow towards the second goal.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 671
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 3/25/2020 1:07:18 AM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Forecast for AUD/USD on March 25, 2020

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar grew by 145 points on Tuesday, since it worked the correction level of 38.2% of the movement on March 9-19. There are no strong reversal signs, growth to the second correction target by Fibonacci level of 50.0% at the price of 0.6095 is possible.

On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above the MACD line (blue indicator), which shows the price's intention to continue rising to the next Fibonacci level of 50.0% at the price of 0.6095. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator lies in the lateral direction, which indicates the imminent completion of growth, that is, above 50%, the correction will no longer work.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 672
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 3/26/2020 12:28:27 AM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Forecast for EUR/USD on March 26, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro added more than 90 points yesterday and reached the first target level of 1.0879. Today, the euro added another 50 points in the Asian session, clearly slowing down on the resistance of the balance line (red indicator ) of the daily price scale. The next growth target is the point of coincidence of the Fibonacci level of 38.2% with the enclosed line of the price channel in the region of 1.0967. At about the same moment, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator can touch the zero line - the boundary with the growth territory, and turn down.

The price touched the MACD line on the four-hour chart, according to Marlin there is no reversal formation, as a result, the price can make a false exit above the MACD line with working out the target on the daily timeframe, after which we wait for the price to turn down with the target at 1.0636.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 673
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 3/26/2020 11:53:50 PM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Forecast for EUR/USD on March 27, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro climbed 150 points on Thursday due to rising risk appetite amid massive infusion of dollar liquidity by the Federal Reserve worth 75 billion dollars a day, the stock market will grow more than 6% (S&P 500 6.24%) and at the same time on the tragic data on applications for unemployment benefits – this past week showed the US economy's opinion in antivirus quarantine, the number of applications reached 3.283 million (!) against the forecast of 1.648 million Before the highest record figure was 669,000 in April 2009. The employment forecast for the next week shows economists' expectations for an increase in unemployment in March from 3.5% to 4.0% and a decrease in non-agricultural employment by 420,000 (in September 2008-422,000). In the euro area, the employment situation is even worse than in the US, but the markets in this situation have traditionally reacted sensitively to the very fact of bad data. Unemployment in Germany for March is expected to rise to 5.1%. We are cautious about the growth of the euro. Also, in the market, investors are taking risks with caution – the trading volume was even less than in the previous days of the week.

The correction was already 50% of the fall on March 9-20. The euro's desire to continue its corrective growth to 61.8% will be fraught with even greater difficulties. The Fibonacci level range of 50.0-61.8% contains multiple technical levels that have accumulated since July 2019. The price is currently above the MACD line and the Marlin oscillator has broken into the growth zone, but the market just needs to swing down a little and the indicators will again be in negative values. Consolidating the price above the Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.1070) will make it possible to continue growth from the Fibonacci level of 61.8% at the price of 1.1170. Moving the price under the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which will also mean breaking through the support of the price channel (1.0970), opening a promising goal of 1.0630 along the lower line of the price channel. The intermediate target level of 1.0879 is the low of October 1, 2019.

The price is still in a growing position on the four-hour chart, but the leading indicator Marlin is already turning down. We are waiting for the development of events.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 674
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 3/30/2020 12:15:03 AM   
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Forecast for AUD/USD on March 30, 2020

AUD/USD
The Australian pound grew by 122 points on Friday, with the upper shadow marking the enclosed line of the price channel. Today in the Asian session there is an intention of the price to move down from the achieved resistance. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator also touched the boundary with the growth territory and turns around from it. The purpose of the decline, in the case of a confirmed reversal, becomes the underlying price channel line in the region of 0.5838.

The price exit above Friday's high could extend the aussie's growth to the upper embedded line of the price channel at the intersection with the Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 0.6410. The MACD line also tends to this point.

On the four-hour chart according to Marlin, a double divergence has formed, the sign of a reversal has strengthened.

Trading recommendations. It is advisable to open sales directly from current levels with consolidating profit in front of the level of 0.5838, S/L 0.6206. If the price goes above 0.6206, we buy with a target in front of the level of 0.6410, S/L 0.6113.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 675
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 3/31/2020 12:42:12 AM   
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Forecast for USD/JPY on March 31, 2020

USD/JPY
Today, the dollar is correcting up against the yen after the previous four-day fall. The closest and most powerful correction resistance is the MACD line on the daily chart on the price of 109.05. Departure of the price to support the price channel line at 107.02 opens the way to the lower channel line to the 102.60 area. Consolidating the price over the MACD line puts the dollar in a very difficult position of uncertainty of freely roaming in the 109.05-111.88 range, which in practice can mean that a certain range could form - a triangle or a flag.

The situation is completely decreasing on the four-hour chart: the price is below the indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone. From which, however, shows the intention to leave. Growth may continue to the MACD line at 109.70, which is higher than the resistance of the MACD line on the daily scale. Even in this discrepancy, uncertainty and possibility that the price could roam around begins. But all this uncertainty is related only to growth. Leaving the price below the linear support of 107.02 opens the way to a decrease to 102.60.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Post #: 676
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 4/1/2020 12:30:39 AM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

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Forecast for EUR/USD on April 1, 2020

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro launched an attack on the strong technical support of 1.0967, formed by the point of intersection with the line of the descending price channel and the Fibonacci level of 38.2%, as can be seen on the daily scale chart. At the same time, the price tried to gain a foothold under the MACD indicator line, but it returned to this line by the time the session ended.

Today, it opened under the MACD line and under the balance line (red indicator), which indicates the market's intention to repeat the attack at 1.0967. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves parallel to the boundary with the territory of the bears, waiting for a signal from the price itself.

Marlin is already in the negative trend zone on the four-hour chart, while the price is kept above the balance and MACD lines. An attack pattern is created for the MACD line, that is, to the target level of 1.0875, determined at the low of October 1, 2019.

So, if yesterday's high of 1.1053 is not violated, short positions in the market can be opened with the target of 1.0875. Stop loss above 1.1053.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 677
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 4/2/2020 12:21:56 AM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

Posts: 742
Joined: 5/16/2014
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Forecast for USD/JPY on April 2, 2020

USD/JPY
The second day, the yen is kept in the range of two lines of the price channel (107.02-107.55). Foreign markets, primarily stock indices, are falling, which continues to put pressure on the pair and increases the likelihood of a price drop to the 102.60 target, determined by the price channel on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator is staying in the declining trend zone. The S&P 500 lost 4.41% yesterday, while the Nikkei 225 is losing 0.86% today in the Asian session.

A convergence has formed on the four-hour chart according to Marlin, but if a price reduction occurs in the next few hours, then a convergence will not form, the growth of the oscillator will take on the character of an indicator discharge before a further decrease.


If the price drops below yesterday's low of 106.93, sales may be opened with a target above 102.60, s/l above 107.85.

Overcoming the price of the upper limit of the range does not lead to opening purchases, since the growth rate is uncertain, it ranges from a little above 107.85 (false puncture) to 109.70 - the MACD line on daily, or even higher - up to 109.80, to the MACD line on H4.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

< Message edited by InstaForex Gertrude -- 4/2/2020 12:52:04 AM >

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 678
RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex - 4/3/2020 12:33:54 AM   
InstaForex Gertrude

 

Posts: 742
Joined: 5/16/2014
Status: offline
Forecast for GBP/USD on April 3, 2020

GBP/USD
The British pound has been moving sideways for five sessions along the 138.2% Fibonacci line. The short-term price drop on March 31 does not break the overall picture. If the price goes out of the range, it will trigger a further increase in the price to the Fibonacci levels of 123.6% and 110.0% - to the prices of 1.2540 and 1.2645, respectively. The resistance of the second target is boosted by the approaching MACD line. The targets of the downward movement are the Fibonacci levels of 161.8% and 200.0% at the price levels of 1.2235 and 1.1935.

We will highlight the signal levels on a smaller scale chart. These are: 1.2484 - March 27 peak and 1.2329 - April 1 low. Accordingly, at the moment of overcoming the price of 1.2484, purchases with goals up to 1.2645 are possible, with overcoming the price of 1.2329, it is advised to open sales with the goal of 1.1935. The intermediate target is 1.2030, which the MACD line is aiming for. If the price reverses from this level, it is advisable to close a short position.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

(in reply to InstaForex Gertrude)
Post #: 679
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